Positive News From The Euro Zone As Germany Averts A Recession – 17th Nov 2019 Weekly Forex Analysis.
Bullish momentum rising in the Euro as Germany averts a recession. Last week the 3rd quarter GDP results for Germany came out at 0.1% growth, the market reacted positively to this piece of news as we saw the Euro gain against most of its counterparts in the last two days of the week.
This was especially good as it calmed the nerves of investors worried about a possible recession coming, due to the 2nd quarter contraction in GDP.
eur/jpy
Analysis: Friday made a nice 1st push-up, after breaking out of the previous downtrend with a perfect head and shoulders reversal pattern. Moving into the week, we would be trading for the 2nd push to the upside.
Manipulation Points: Lower – 119.80
gbp/usd
Analysis: We started the last week with a strong correction of the previous downtrend but then had two days of sideways price action, which resets our bias. Then Thursday made valid 1st push to the Upside and was not nullified on Friday.
So, we are still trading for the second push to the upside on this pair.
Manipulation Points: Lower – 1.2886 & 1.2862
usd/jpy
Analysis: This pair sold off on Thursday, creating a valid push to the downside but was quickly nullified by Fridays push up. Having two opposing valid pushes on this pair, I would revert to an open bias until the trend is made clearer.
Manipulation Points: Upper – 108.87 & 109.28 & 109.48 Lower – 108.25 & 107.91
nzd/usd
Analysis: We had a valid push down on this pair on Thursday, but it was nullified by Friday, making over 65% retracement of the Thursday’s move. So we are reverting to an open bias on this pair moving into the new week.
Manipulation Points: Upper – 0.6418 & 0.6466 Lower – 0.6359 & 0.6322
Usd/chf
Analysis: The simple rule of “two sideways day results in an open bias” applies firmly to this pair for the coming week. As we had Thursday and Friday, make two sideways price actions.
Therefore, we are looking to trade manipulation points to both sides of the price.
Manipulation Points: Upper – 0.9909 & 0.9977 Lower – 0.9871 & 0.9840
aud/usd
Analysis: We also have two conflicting pushes in this pair from Thursday and Friday. So, while keeping the selling pressure in mind, we are trading manipulation points to both sides of the price.
Manipulation Points: Upper – 0.6823 Lower – 0.6798 & 0.6770
eur/gbp
Analysis: Despite the solid downward push we got on this pair on Monday, the rest of the week has been in a sideways motion. So we would leave our bias open in this pair.
Manipulation Points: Upper – 0.8604 & 0.8630 & 0.8653 Lower – 0.8547
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Sterling